Analysis · Keynote Interview · April 2026

The art of the mid-market exit

Exit conditions might be challenging in 2026, but value-add managers can generate attractive returns for their investors with creativity and determination, says Asterion Industrial Partners CEO and founding partner, Jesús Olmos Clavijo.

Realising investments that were made during the heady days of 2019 and 2020, when valuations were high and debt was cheap, is undoubtedly challenging in today's market. Straightforward trophy assets continue to attract attention, but anything with added complexity is likely to require creativity to exit, not to mention hard work and perseverance.

Against the backdrop of high economic volatility and uncertainty, core mid-market managers may also struggle to make money at exit. However, value-add strategies are at a distinct advantage, as additional EBITDA means there is the potential to forgo multiple uplift.

How would you describe dealflow in the mid-market?

There are a substantial number of opportunities emerging across various subsectors in today's market. Despite the mega-funds dominating the largest deals, around 90 percent of the infrastructure landscape belongs to the mid-market. Furthermore, there are relatively few managers targeting that space, and competitive dynamics are still quite benign.

Having said that, sourcing and origination in the mid-market can still be complex. This is not a market that's dominated by competitive auctions, where the only differentiation is the cost of capital. Instead, it's a market where you have to create your own opportunities by forging relationships with corporates and building rapport with management teams. That's where the complexity comes in and how you can distinguish yourself.

In many cases these opportunities originate from long-standing industrial relationships rather than formal sale processes. That means patience, sector expertise and local networks are often more important than simply having access to capital. Managers who combine deep industrial knowledge with strong relationships are therefore better positioned to source proprietary opportunities and avoid highly competitive auction environments.

"Despite the mega-funds dominating the largest deals, around 90 percent of the infrastructure landscape belongs to the mid-market."

What are management teams looking for in a financial partner?

Firstly, capital is obviously key. Management teams need that investment to take their business to the next level. But the ability to speak the same language and share similar goals is also crucial.

Asterion has a strong industrial focus, the clue is in the name. Today, we have a team of 70 people and everyone has extensive experience across the sectors that we target. That means we have a deep understanding and knowledge of the various challenges and opportunities that face our management teams. That's incredibly helpful.

I think it's also important that a sponsor understands their role as well as that of the management team. You should never make the mistake that just because you're injecting capital into the business that you can run the company. Obviously, we have a fiduciary duty to our investors. Therefore, we closely monitor performance while providing continuous support, but we don't attempt to take over.

What does that creative approach to sourcing look like in practice?

There are a number of different potential approaches to take. One could be platform building, where you back a management team and a good set of operating assets, with the strategic ambition to grow and add value.

A good example of this from our portfolio would be Clubo, a parking business based in Spain; or Olin, a Spanish aggregator of retail fibre companies.

Another prime example would be Abio, a biogas platform that is expanding rapidly into those European markets with favourable regulation such as Spain, Italy, Germany, Benelux and the UK. Our ambition is to eventually put more than €1 billion to work in that space.

In addition to platform building, we like to partner with entrepreneurs that need outside capital to accelerate the growth of their businesses and support long-term strategic expansion.

What are the most exciting investment themes in the mid-market today?

The most dominant mid-market sectors have evolved considerably in recent years. Two to three years ago, fibre deals were ubiquitous across the sector. Fast forward to 2025, however, and I would say that around two thirds of transactions involved the energy transition.

Our view of the energy transition space is that it's just that – a transition. To fully decarbonise the economy, we'll need to leverage all the technologies at our disposal. That means everything from natural gas, renewables and battery storage to energy efficiency and nuclear. War in Ukraine, and now in the Middle East, has underscored the importance of energy that's not only sustainable, but also affordable. Security of supply is equally crucial.

We're, therefore, very pragmatic and examine every element of the value chain, as well as potential low-carbon technologies – particularly as we look to play our part in the transition, as well as fulfilling net-zero objectives.

In many cases the most compelling opportunities lie in infrastructure assets that enable the energy transition rather than in individual generation assets themselves, particularly where regulation and long-term demand visibility support sustainable growth.

Another sector that deserves close attention in today's market is data centres. In Europe, a huge amount of capital will be required to expand data centre capacity, which currently lags behind the US significantly.

Of course, there are two distinct subsectors within the data centre ecosystem itself. At Asterion, we're very interested in data centres predicated on cloud migration and co-location. AI-based data centres are considerably more complex and we're being more cautious there.

"In the mid-market you don't wait for opportunities – you have to create them."

How would you describe the exit environment for mid-market assets and how important are realisations for fundraising?

There's no doubt that realisations are hugely important for investors today. As many people like to say, DPI is the new IRR. It's vital that you're able to crystalise value and return capital to your investors.

Of course, that's easier said than done. Exit conditions are undeniably tough in today's market. We're now at a point in the cycle where managers are looking to exit investments made between 2018 and early 2020. That was before the pandemic, as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many investments made at that time were also completed at high multiples and supported by significant amounts of cheap debt. Today, it's challenging to exit at those same multiples, especially given ongoing global volatility and an increased cost of capital.

Having said that, the market is somewhat bifurcated in 2026. If you have a trophy asset that's easy to value and manage, then there will always be strong interest from buyers. We're not in an environment where you're likely to get 20 non-binding offers, followed by 10 binding offers, but there's always appetite for quality.

"Buyers today are also more selective and increasingly focused on assets that demonstrate strong operational performance."

Buyers today are also more selective and increasingly focused on assets that demonstrate strong operational performance, resilient cashflows and clear long-term growth prospects. By contrast, if an asset is less straightforward, then you have to be more creative. The process will likely take longer, and it will be more bilateral in nature.

Finally, value-add strategies are in a better position when it comes to the exit environment. If you've created EBITDA, you can then afford to give up a bit of multiple. The reality is that it's more difficult to make money at exit if you have multiple contraction in a core strategy, where EBITDA is relatively stable.

Source: Infrastructure Investor, April 2026

https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com/asterion-on-the-art-of-the-mid-market-exit/